The interplanetary shock propagation model

The interplanetary shock propagation model Download PDF EPUB FB2

[1] We have examined a possibility for improvement of the STOA (Shock Time Of Arrival) model for interplanetary shock propagation. In the STOA model, the shock propagating velocity is given by V s ∼ R −N with N =where R is the heliocentric distance. Noting observational and numerical findings that the radial dependence of shock wave velocity depends on initial shock wave velocity, we Cited by:   Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model: ISPM [10] The ISPM is based on a parametric study of ‐D MHD simulations [Smith and Dryer, ].

Those calculations used a range of input shock speeds, temporal durations, and longitudinal widths (at the Sun) to mimic the solar flare over a range of helio‐longitudes relative to the Earth's Cited by: This paper investigates methods to improve the predictions of Shock Arrival Time (SAT) of the original Shock Propagation Model (SPM).

According to the classical blast wave theory adopted in the SPM, the shock propagating speed is determined by the total energy of the original explosion together with the background solar wind speed. Noting that there exists an intrinsic limit to the transit Cited by: 4.

We have compared the prediction capability of two types of Sun‐Earth connection models: (1) ensemble of physics‐based shock propagation models (STOA, STOA‐2, ISPM, Cited by: The propagation of interplanetary shock waves during a series of strong solar flare events in August was observed using the Prognoz spacecraft.

Regularities in the shape, energetic properties, and flow structure of the waves are described on the basis of Prognoz measurements. MHD discontinuities in the waves were identified using a single-point data reduction technique. The traveltimes of interplanetary (IP) shocks at 1 AU associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be predicted by the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model of Gopalswamy et al.

[] based on a constant IP acceleration. We evaluate the ESA model using 91 IP shocks identified from sudden commencement (SC)/sudden impulse (SI) on the Earth and by examining the solar wind data from the.

IP shock parameters, such as shock impact angle, speed, compression ratio, amongst others, were calculated by using standard shock theory, namely the Rankine-Hugoniot jump conditions, with the assumptions of energy and momentum conservation through the shock surface (see, e.g., Landau and Lifshitz, ).

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an ejection of energetic plasma with magnetic field from the Sun. In traversing the Sun-Earth distance, the kinematics of the CME is immensely important for the prediction of space weather.

The objective of the present work is to study the propagation properties of six major geo-effective CMEs and their associated interplanetary shocks which were observed. The IP shock model is extended from the empirical CME arrival model of Gopalswamy et al.

based on a constant IP acceleration. A comparison of CME and/or IP shock propagation models has been summarized well in recent studies [e.g., McKenna‐Lawlor et al., ; Cho et al., ; Owens and Cargill, ]. Using a compound model for shock and particle propagation in the interplanetary medium (up to 1 AU), we have derived the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles released into the interplanetary medium as a function of time, and the mean free path for their propagation along the interplanetary.

Their subsequent propagation into the ambient interplanetary medium and disturbing effects within the solar wind are discussed within the context of theoretical and phenomenological models. The latterbased essentially on observationsare useful for a limited interpretation of shock geometric and kinematic more» characteristics.

The use in real-time forecasting of two models that use these metric Type II observations is discussed in this paper. These are the shock time of arrival (STOA) model and interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM). The STOA model was the first transitioned approach from physically-based research to operations in the Sun-to-Earth context.

Abstract. We have examined a possibility for improvement of the STOA (Shock Time Of Arrival) model for interplanetary shock propagation. In the STOA model, the shock propagating velocity is given by V s ~ R-N with N =where R is the heliocentric distance.

Noting observational and numerical findings that the radial dependence of shock wave velocity depends on initial shock wave velocity. This model explains the consistency between the SW speed and the antisunward propagation speed of auroral intensification [Zhou and Tsurutani, ].

Dayside magnetic reconnection occurs more intensely and frequently with interplanetary shocks pulses [ Song and Lysak, ]. The real-time performance of the 1D CESE-HD-2 model during Solar Cycle 23 (February – December ) is investigated and compared with those of the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA), the Interplanetary-Shock-Propagation Model (ISPM), and the Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2 (HAFv.2).

Of the total of flare events, occurred. Smith, Z., Dryer, M., The interplanetary shock propagation model: a model for predicting solar-flare-caused geomagnetic sudden impulses based on the 2 1/2 D MHD numerical simulation results from the interplanetary global model (2D.

Within the hit window of ±12 h, the success rate of the Database-II method for solar events is 44%. This could be practically equivalent to the shock time of arrival (STOA) model, the interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM), and the HAFv.2 model.

To explore the capability of this method, it is tested on new data sets. The present parametric study of interplanetary shock propagation to 1 AU uses a two- and-one-half-dimensional MHD time-dependent model whose input conditions encompass initial shock velocity.

1. Introduction. The interaction of IP shocks with the Earth’s bow shock and their transmissions through the magnetosheath to the boundary of the magnetosphere has been studied mainly by a gas dynamic modeling (e.g., Stahara and Spreiter, ).These models allow the generation and propagation of only fast mode waves in the magnetosheath, thus they found only a single, fast.

A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February to Octoberit is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time.

The shock time of arrival (STOA) model and the interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM) give predictions of the time of arrival and strength of solar-initiated interplanetary shocks.Three-dimensional model of the propagation of an interplanetary shock wave into a representative ambient three-dimensional heliospheric solar wind is demonstrated.

The numerical MHD simulation is initialized by assuming a peak shock velocity of km sec- 1 at the center of a right circular cone of 18° included angle at 18 solar radii.to model interplanetary shock propagation beyond the HP with the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic.

Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) code. Their simulation shows that the shock observ ed at the.